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dias
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It’s funny isn’t it, a little strange mix of events brewing - I don’t think anyone can predict or know what will happen. 
 

My guess, is that maybe, unlike 2008, actual assets will rise and the value of money will fall, because everyone is printing more, you will get inflation; and therefore actual solid goods will rise. Like the cost of oil and bricks and gold and classic cars. Anything like that. Regular cars. You need oil and power to mine and make all this stuff. We still need to build houses, but the cost of building a house has risen dramatically. Even the cost of one brick, I think it has tripled! And the cost of labour. I have a feeling houses and land and material goods and raw materials will continue to rise, so I don’t think we will get that property drop. I have a strange feeling they might even rise in value.

 

This is an absolute guess I will probably be totally wrong! I have a feeling if you own assets over savings, you might win. Your assets will gain in value, your monetary savings in the bank, devalue. It feels wrong but I think now is the time to invest in property, art, land, number plates! Buy a horse! If you have a farm, or precious metals, or gold bullion, great. Money in the bank is becoming more useless. 
 

Maybe I’m totally wrong here Dias. Maybe we are in for another market crash! I don’t think anyone knows.

 

We are in a property position where the house was at the lowest end and in ruin just like our last one we did up. House prices in our area would have to drop by between 150k and 200k for us to be in negative equity. I feel fine about that. If it dropped it dropped though, they will steadily rise back again over the years I am sure but God knows, who knows! 
 

I am thinking the opposite to everyone and what the media is telling us. Clamour to get your hands on resources and physical things. Money seems to be devaluing. 
 

But I honestly, this is a wild guess for lil ol’ me who is absolutely no economist of course! 
 

For instance, scrap is major valuable at the moment. We ripped out all the old radiators in our new house and got £200 for 13 of them. Okay that seems not so impressive but only 5 years ago you would’ve got about £40-50 max!

 

Even scrapping parts and stripping it out of the old boiler, copper electrical wiring etc is lucrative. The scrap business is booming! 
 

Hubby won £680 for a game of semi-professional pool a few nights ago. He never stayed on after. He could have lost it all he got have made more. It’s a side hobby of his but I joke if his business fails he’ll have to go between shooting pool and selling his behind - LOL!
 

 

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I am not an economist either Lolita, we are both speculating. Even if we were domain experts we would still be speculating, it would be informed speculation but still nobody knows as you said. We have to wait and see. 

I know nothing about the housing market so don't take my opinion seriously. What I do with my simple brain is to zoom out and dissect the bigger picture into small pieces where 1+1=2. This is something everyone can do, we don't know the intricacies of the financial markets of course but nothing is stopping us from understanding the fundamentals. Or at least try our best.

How I have it on my mind:

Business or commercial activity:

1) Hustling/Speculating: Buying and selling something without actually generating tangible value. This is pure opportunism.  Profit/loss is based on external opportunities and good/bad estimations. Buying/selling stock, bonds, derivatives, cryptocurrency, real-estate etc etc

2) Providing a service or product that improves people's lives. This is of course a lot more difficult, notably product based businesses. A whole new ball game. I do believe people who go down that route are the ones who are born for this, it's way easier to make money by hustling alone, making serious money by providing value to other people is a completely different game. Although it's a whole new ball game, the element of hustling/opportunism still exists to a large degree. For instance, in an imaginary world, if I start working as a contractor (contracts usually last from 3 to 12 months and pay sh*t load of money) and things go well, I could hire people from a poorer country to do the software development and then my main job would be hustling for more contracts (which is very difficult btw -  I have seriously considered taking this path). I would mainly earn money from the wages discrepancy between the two countries. So even though it's a business it's mainly hustling, I wouldn't generate value to other people that much, I would take advantage of the outsourcing opportunity. Product based businesses are the most difficult ones, like the mobile app I created in the past, yes if it succeeds you are shooting for the stars but 99% fail....Nonetheless, serious businesses provide something "tangible", not thin air.

 

I mentioned the above because I believe these are the fundamentals of an economy in simple terms. Now back to the housing market and why I do believe it's a bubble.  Human nature is greedy and lazy hence it's easier to go down the first route than the second and when this happens in a massive scale it creates a "bubble". Money is changing hands but without any actual value being generated and when this happens for long and in a big scale it's an indicator there is an imminent market crash. The last few years people are buying properties like crazy for multiple reasons obviously but also because it's practically the best investment you can make in terms of risk/returns. Many people can't afford those houses realistically, they borrow and they borrow...at some point reality would knock their doors and the bubble will burst. 

Yes the value of money is falling temporarily due to high inflation, yes you are losing a lot of money right now if you are having money in the bank. However, due to the rise in cost of living, somewhere down the line, some people will start having money issues and won't be able to maintain a nice house and pay the mortgage too. Mortgage rates will also increase due to war, stagnant GDP, banker's bad investments etc etc 

Simultaneously people also panic so they invest more in assets which makes things even worse since it increases the value of properties (demand/supply). My take is the prices of houses will continue to increase for the next 2-3 years until the market crashes. I don't know when apparently but at some point the sh*t will hit the fan. 

Is it a bad thing if it happens? Not necessarily. This is the standard economic cycle. In my opinion we are on this stage:

image.png.19f40888c7ba946c726ac2c04af26d34.png

 

 

6 hours ago, mylolita said:

 If it dropped it dropped though, they will steadily rise back again over the years I am sure but God knows, who knows! 

That is in fact correct. Even if there is a market crash and the prices go down they would start going up a few years later in the next economic cycle. And the story repeats itself and so on and so forth. So yes you are right. Property is still the best investment and I believe it always was and always will be. For me, as I said, I don't want the hassle, I am just lazy lol If a market crash happens, I will buy only to take advantage of the opportunity. 

I am certain I am missing a lot of parameters but cut me some slack, I studied computer science and statistics not finance. 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, dias said:

Money is changing hands but without any actual value being generated and when this happens for long and in a big scale it's an indicator there is an imminent market crash.... Many people can't afford those houses realistically, they borrow and they borrow...at some point reality would knock their doors and the bubble will burst. 

I see both sides of this argument, but this is what ultimately stands out to me.

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3 hours ago, Jibralta said:

I see both sides of this argument, but this is what ultimately stands out to me.

Yes totally - if people push themselves and then loose their jobs and can’t pay their very long term and vast mortgage - bad times!

 

We were at this crossroad half a year ago. Take a huge whackin’ big mortgage and live in a house we can’t quite believe we could ever “own” or buy still a very lovely and large home but pay over half cash for it and have a very small mortgage on the other bit left over. We decided to pay over half in cash and have a very small mortgage which we could still pay off if needed. Kinda. We’d have to sell some of my husbands stock from his business. We are using some of that money to renovate the house as quick as we can.

 

On our previous house we did put down a large deposit of 25% but still had a large mortgage. We got lucky with equity, got a good price for the house, was able to jump up the ladder twice over and not have to be mortgaged to the hilt. 
 

Husbands business is completely risky and always varied. Never know how much is going in or out any given day or month. I don’t know how he does it to be honest. His Mum called him because she gets everything in order before it goes to the accountant and she was scared saying are you going bust son?! Covid hit us bad. He has had a relaxed and attention divided three months where he made about 26k a s that is very low for him - just about breaking even. With having to pay at least one salary on the regular and keep everything else afloat and pay bills etc and buy stock to sell on. Some people may say that might seem like a lot of money but those kind of numbers incoming are very low for the price of items he has to buy to sell on (he is dealing in, quite high price, luxury items, for the past few years). 
 

The tax laws in the UK don’t look kindly on antique and second hand goods dealing. You can’t apply for the same relief other companies can, so we pay a huge amount of tax as well, and you can’t swindle anything like so many other people do. It’s horribly honest 😅

 

My husband doesn’t have the mentality that it will fail though. I always feel like if s**t hit the fan he could sell all his stock sell the business and we could just pay everything off live simple. He could take a year or two off and then just, get by on a regular job. He doesn’t even have any GCSE’s. He quit school when he was 15, walked right out the door. 
 

Just a glorified sales man 😉

 

And Dias, I can totally see where you’re coming from. Obviously I have physical stakes in this wanting to work out 🥲 so I hope for the best! Just muddling through aren’t we 🤓 As long as you are healthy happy have a roof over your head and can buy food and keep warm I think we have lost touch - that is very good, we should be grateful. I find myself set in very spoilt, shamefully bratty ways sometimes. I’m nobody, y‘know, we‘re not rolling around n a bed of notes burning money. I rely on my husband, he relies on me to keep it together and look after the kids so he can go away, work, focus. I feel very guilty and ashamed lately because I have been on and off in my moods he has often stepped in to give me breaks and it has taken away from work.

 

Getting back on track!

 

Get the coffee out! 🤩

 

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/09/strategist-why-the-uk-economy-is-one-of-the-most-vulnerable-right-now.html

image.png.103eafed4eac0b1a6771900b24d3e808.png

 

image.png.d017d2b3666212e5877bd0127a0aabf8.png

 

 

Chances are we are heading for a market crash in the UK. I told you people buy houses like crazy. Outside of Liverpool houses in rough areas were sold for 80K two years ago and now they are being sold for 160K. Same neighborhood, same houses. How can people afford new houses now? Did they make money during the lock down when the economy shrank? Did people create value during the past two years? Nope. 

I need to find a way to get involved in this. Sh*t, I don't know anything about the housing market. Damn, this is a real opportunity. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Jibralta said:

What is the typical mortgage term in the UK?

35 years Jib, with normally a 5-10% deposit.

 

Thats a very long term mortgage. Ours isn’t that long. You can actually be fined for paying back early or paying back large sums. A lot of people in the UK, living mortgage free is a financial dream for a lot of people. They live to see the day “the house is paid off”. I remember my Dad doing it quite early, at 38 years old. He never property jumped or climbed property ladders. My parents still live in their perfectly sweet, very small starter home they bought in the 80s when they were first married. Me and my sister were born there. No tv (couldn’t afford one!) until I was about 5 I think, or 6. They had hardly any furniture. I never even noticed or remember. House was immaculate and clean, my mum stayed at home all her life she has never worked, my Dad worked long hours and did university at the same time.

 

He qualified as an optician years ago has been retired since he was 54. Retiring early is another dream everyone has! If you can completely own your home with no mortgage and quit work before 60 it’s like, a big dream here for most people. My Dad was lucky but he worked very hard, played it very safe and saved and never took any risks or pushed himself financially. He’s very happy. A lot to be said for it actually.

 

I think he looks at me and my husband and although we have so so much more than they ever did, I think sometimes he wonders if we‘re on the right path. Sometimes I do too. We have reigned it in. We got offered all kinds of crazy huge mortgages a year or two back. I’m glad we didn’t push ourselves as things have gone - flat… 😅 to put it mildly as you know!

 

All the pressure is on the hubs as well so, I honestly don’t know how it does it everyday plus spends so much time with the kids. 
 

Do you think you will continue to rent?

 

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29 minutes ago, mylolita said:

35 years Jib, with normally a 5-10% deposit.

Is it common to have fixed rates for only 2 years? Here, you almost have to go out of your way to get such a raw deal (called adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) here)

30 minutes ago, mylolita said:

You can actually be fined for paying back early or paying back large sums.

Whaaaaaaaaaat? That sucks!!

31 minutes ago, mylolita said:

Do you think you will continue to rent?

As long as it makes sense financially, yes. I would like to buy something, but there's no rush (never has been lol). Most importantly, the location we choose has to fit in with our lives and our commutes. And right now, prices are crazy anyway. So, we'll just hunker down a little while longer.

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Just, Biggie Smalls had it right - “More money, more problems”!

 

18 minutes ago, Jibralta said:

Is it common to have fixed rates for only 2 years? Here, you almost have to go out of your way to get such a raw deal (called adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) here)

Whaaaaaaaaaat? That sucks!!

As long as it makes sense financially, yes. I would like to buy something, but there's no rush (never has been lol). Most importantly, the location we choose has to fit in with our lives and our commutes. And right now, prices are crazy anyway. So, we'll just hunker down a little while longer.

Absolutely no problem with that! You have to do what’s right for you and Arnie Jib.

 

And fixed 2 years is good 🥲 That’s what we got, then you go hunting but the idea is because you are paying it and have your house as equity for the banks if it all falls flat you can normally get a much reduced mortgage after your fixed term. I think on our last house it got reduced by about £155 a month. Then we did pay off a chunk at one point, can’t remember the fine! 
 

I wouldn’t have been able to get on the property ladder with, if I do say so myself, such a lovely house, and a large one, at 25, if it hadn’t of been for the other half 🥲😉 Who is nearly a decade older than me. So that makes sense. Quite a few of my friends bought at ages 27, 28. I went to a good school, most of them became doctors, had well paid jobs. Mortgages got thrown at them, they went into houses very unlike my Mum and Dads first time humble abode but, they also had help from their financially well off parents! 
 

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2 minutes ago, mylolita said:

Just, Biggie Smalls had it right - “More money, more problems”!

 

Absolutely no problem with that! You have to do what’s right for you and Arnie Jib.

 

And fixed 2 years is good 🥲 That’s what we got, then you go hunting but the idea is because you are paying it and have your house as equity for the banks if it all falls flat you can normally get a much reduced mortgage after your fixed term. I think on our last house it got reduced by about £155 a month. Then we did pay off a chunk at one point, can’t remember the fine! 
 

I wouldn’t have been able to get on the property ladder with, if I do say so myself, such a lovely house, and a large one, at 25, if it hadn’t of been for the other half 🥲😉 Who is nearly a decade older than me. So that makes sense. Quite a few of my friends bought at ages 27, 28. I went to a good school, most of them became doctors, had well paid jobs. Mortgages got thrown at them, they went into houses very unlike my Mum and Dads first time humble abode but, they also had help from their financially well off parents! 
 

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Both mine and my husbands parents have hardly any money. We don’t have financial help at all. No vast money coming to us when anyone dies. Nothing inherited. 
 

It almost used to give me an envious, bitter taste in my mouth when my school friends started being given y’know, 60k to put towards their first home and then, getting a brand new car bought for them at 17. I was one of the “poor kids” at my school. I used to wear my Mums vintage clothes. Then vintage came into fashion and I was okay 😉 

 

I never had a upbringing in poverty at all it’s just compared to my friends, it was normal, average. Nothing flash.

 

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On 5/8/2022 at 10:57 PM, mylolita said:

we‘re not rolling around n a bed of notes burning money.

Ahhhh you destroyed my fantasy now. I had imagined you like this:

image.png.81af2f999b3ce54c7beaa77cfa64d139.png

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46 minutes ago, dias said:

Ahhhh you destroyed my fantasy now. I had imagined you like this:

image.png.81af2f999b3ce54c7beaa77cfa64d139.png

She is wallowing in the heathen EURO HOW DARE YOU 🤣

 

And, no, couldn’t be further from 🥲

 

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14 minutes ago, mylolita said:

She is wallowing in the heathen EURO HOW DARE YOU 🤣

 

And, no, couldn’t be further from 🥲

 

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My bath is further up on the glamour scale though but yes the mass of notes are missing… spent it all on the actual bath ACTUAL TRUTH 🤣🤣🤣

 

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1:23 "What's your takeaway from that"? Hahahahahaha legend. Like a schoolboy after attending a class. 

Financial help won't actually improve the situation like it never did. If you want to limit the rise in cost of living you need to introduce quotas to the prices but this would mean government intervention and losses for most companies. I don't think the private sector would allow it (which I understand). It's difficult to stop an avalanche regardless, I can't really blame the government(s) that much in this case, it's a global domino. In the end, like always, everyone who is at the bottom will pay the price. Unfortunately this includes me. 

I need to see the funny side of things, that's why I laugh with Boris, at least he is funny. Poor guy, he is not going to be remember like Tony Blair, Brexit was not big enough feat to write history. Ts ts ts poor guy. 

 

 

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The whitening gel the dentist gave me is pretty strong, he told me to expect my teeth to become more sensitive as long as I use the gel and he said no coffee at all. I am like sorry doc I can't do that lol. So I  have to drink my coffee like a shot. Argg, still better than nothing but I can't enjoy it this way. I can live without much food (although I am a foodie)  but without coffee, man, this is a painful. 

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Good news, bro signed the contract, he starts as a professor in the aerospace engineering department in Georgia from November. Yay!!!!! I am happy for him. It took him only 15 years lol. 

His project would be re-usability and sustainability of materials which is the major problem Elon Musk is trying to solve with Space-X. Skyrockets should be re-usable, you can't build a new one every time. 

Ha, I joked if he solves this problem he might receive a text from Elon. That would be cool lol. 

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28 minutes ago, dias said:

The whitening gel the dentist gave me is pretty strong, he told me to expect my teeth to become more sensitive as long as I use the gel

That does happen! When we were kids, my mom's friend gave us a package of Crest Whitening Strips. No idea why-- think she worked for Crest or something. As with any new and interesting cosmetic product, my sister and I tried them out. After a couple of tries, I noticed that my teeth felt annoyingly sensitive. I attributed it to the whitening strips and stopped using them.

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13 hours ago, dias said:

1:23 "What's your takeaway from that"? Hahahahahaha legend. Like a schoolboy after attending a class. 

Financial help won't actually improve the situation like it never did. If you want to limit the rise in cost of living you need to introduce quotas to the prices but this would mean government intervention and losses for most companies. I don't think the private sector would allow it (which I understand). It's difficult to stop an avalanche regardless, I can't really blame the government(s) that much in this case, it's a global domino. In the end, like always, everyone who is at the bottom will pay the price. Unfortunately this includes me. 

I need to see the funny side of things, that's why I laugh with Boris, at least he is funny. Poor guy, he is not going to be remember like Tony Blair, Brexit was not big enough feat to write history. Ts ts ts poor guy. 

 

 

Anthony Charles Lynton Blair - our lip sticked war lord 🤣

 

And you are not at the bottom Dias! Plenty of people would kill for your salary and opportunities!

 

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2 hours ago, dias said:

Good news, bro signed the contract, he starts as a professor in the aerospace engineering department in Georgia from November. Yay!!!!! I am happy for him. It took him only 15 years lol. 

His project would be re-usability and sustainability of materials which is the major problem Elon Musk is trying to solve with Space-X. Skyrockets should be re-usable, you can't build a new one every time. 

Ha, I joked if he solves this problem he might receive a text from Elon. That would be cool lol. 

That is insane cool - congrats to your big brother! 
 

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I really don't know why I feel so unmotivated recently. I think I reached the point of burnout this week. I went to the gym twice this week and both times I couldn't exercise, I had no motivation whatsoever to lift or do anything, I left without working out. I didn't even walk this week. I try to go for walks and instead I sit on the first bench I find and I spend my time browsing on my phone for coding algorithms. It's sad. I skipped the acting class today too. I don't know, I feel numb, I am not tired because I do sleep most days but I feel disoriented and not being able to focus. 

I've experienced plenty of burnouts in the past, it's not the first time but I feel something is wrong. I do have spells that I have no desire to do anything but they don't last long. I am trying to understand what I am doing differently the last few months and the only thing I changed was that I started drinking whiskey on a daily basis. Not much, just a bit before sleep to help me fall asleep. Also, I went out sometimes and drank a lot (for me). The other day I ended up drinking alone in a cocktail bar. I caught the waitress looking at me concerned. Didn't drink that much, 4 cocktails, I guess the fact I was drinking alone was worrisome. 

I do like whiskey, not that much though (I was never big on alcohol anyway), but it seems daily consumption even if it is just a bit has a long term effect. I can't explain it otherwise, I haven't changed anything else in my life. I think this bottle will go to the trash. 

According to Andrew Huberman, there is no scientific terminology for feeling burnout, it’s dopamine depletion in reality. I suspect it's a combination of alcohol and work stress. I feel like I need holidays, like long holidays. I can't do it right now, I have to finish a difficult project first which would take another month for sure. 

No more alcohol from now on. See how that goes. I hope it's that. I hate not being able to exercise. I hate I put two kg, I hate feeling unmotivated and sluggish. I need to get back on track. 

 

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3 hours ago, dias said:

I left without working out.

That's not like you!

2 hours ago, dias said:

I suspect it's a combination of alcohol and work stress.

Probably. Even if you're not predisposed to alcoholism, it's habit-forming and builds up in your system. Too much alcohol does affect your thoughts and feelings. It feels good to have a drink after a stressful week of work, but at a certain point alcohol starts contributing to (and complicating) the problem.

3 hours ago, dias said:

No more alcohol from now on. See how that goes. I hope it's that.

There's a good chance that it is. My boyfriend and I have been through periods where we've drank too much on the regular. Especially in our 30s. I don't know what it was with that decade! But we both noticed that when we abstained from drinking, we are happier. Eliminating the chemicals is always a good first step.

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9 hours ago, Jibralta said:

That's not like you!

Not at all. I woke up this morning feeling better. I hit the gym early in the morning and managed to workout. Not the best workout but good enough to improve my mood 🙂

9 hours ago, Jibralta said:

Probably. Even if you're not predisposed to alcoholism, it's habit-forming and builds up in your system. Too much alcohol does affect your thoughts and feelings. It feels good to have a drink after a stressful week of work, but at a certain point alcohol starts contributing to (and complicating) the problem.

Yes I agree. I think it feels good momentarily and makes you relax (which I need, I am too stiff for most people at first), sometimes it does help with flirting too if you don't get really drunk. However, I noticed it has long term effects, not only the next day. Alcohol does decrease testosterone temporarily but if you drink daily there is definitely a perceptible change in the mood and lack of motivation. 

I believe alcohol lowers your inhibitions and you are more like your true self in a way. So it makes me more like my true self without the logical veneer, this is how I experience it. This means I laugh with pretty much everything, I laugh very easily under normal circumstances but only when I am with people I know and I am comfortable with. With alcohol I just laugh with everything and everyone or even with some random thoughts. Also, I get angry very fast with alcohol, not aggressive whatsoever like some people, for example if someone says something provocative that I would normally ignore, when I am drunk I am more than eager to reciprocate. I could very easily get into fights (even knowing I would get my *ss kicked lol). 

9 hours ago, Jibralta said:

There's a good chance that it is. My boyfriend and I have been through periods where we've drank too much on the regular. Especially in our 30s. I don't know what it was with that decade! But we both noticed that when we abstained from drinking, we are happier. Eliminating the chemicals is always a good first step.

Hope this is it. We will see...No alcohol from now on. 

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There are articles regarding routine alcohol use lowering serotonin.  I came across them when I noticed a pattern of drinking and waking up in the middle of the night feeling super anxious and wanted to know why.

I stopped for a while and now just drink socially, rather than having that glass or two of wine a night.  The longer I go without the better I feel and better I sleep.

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