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Thread: "50% of women get pregnant while on contraception"

  1. #11
    Platinum Member RayKay's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by toshiba
    No, that's an erroneous conclusion. The percentage doesn't rise by the accrual of years. It's still 2% no matter how long you're on it. The percentage is not cumulative.
    Yes, I was going to say that

    All it means is that you are "risking" the 2, 5, whatever % more often, not that your actual risk increases in itself.

  2. #12
    Platinum Member CarnelianButterfly's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by under_my_amberella
    I disagree. The pill is anywhere from about 96-99%. That sounds pretty high but when you break it down... that's per year. So you have, let's say, a 2% chance of getting pregnant each year. That's a 10% chance of getting pregnant in 5 years. 40% chance of getting pregnant in 20 years. Not really that low...
    Stats don't work like that.

    The 98% is for the use of the pill. Its not 98% chance per year. Each time you have sex its 2% chance of that sex act resulting in pregnancy. If the pill is used properly its more likely less than that.

  3. #13
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    I disagree. The pill is anywhere from about 96-99%. That sounds pretty high but when you break it down... that's per year. So you have, let's say, a 2% chance of getting pregnant each year. That's a 10% chance of getting pregnant in 5 years. 40% chance of getting pregnant in 20 years. Not really that low...
    The typical failure rate of the pill is 0.2%, the typical user failure rate is 3%. If used correctly and at your prescribed dosage the pill will work 499 times in 500. Now that does not mean that you are a chance to get pregnant every 500 events. It means that EVERY time you take it your chance of getting pregnant is 1 in 500...that is a very different thing.

    When you factor in there are about 4-6 days available every cycle get pregnant, even if you played the exact odds that would be on average a chance every 7 - 9 years. And that would be unlikely.
    Last edited by melrich; 01-29-2008 at 10:33 PM.

  4. #14
    Platinum Member knightNshiningarmor's Avatar
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    eh UmA your math is a little flawed.. its not so much per year but rather dependent on how many times you have sex..lets say you have sex 10 times then the math would be assuming it has a 96% success rate would be (1-(chance of success over all 10 time which = .96^10)= (1-.665)= .335= 33.5% chance to have a child with the pill over 10 times.... correct me if im wrong its been along time since stats. it would be closer to 20% if its closer to 98% effective ...but you might want to see if the effective rating isnt closer to like 99.8 in which case would still be pretty consistent...moral of story tho the more attempts the more chances you have.

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  6. #15
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    Originally Posted by knightNshiningarmor
    eh UmA your math is a little flawed.. its not so much per year but rather dependent on how many times you have sex..lets say you have sex 10 times then the math would be assuming it has a 96% success rate would be (1-(chance of success over all 10 time which = .96^10)= (1-.665)= .335= 33.5% chance to have a child with the pill over 10 times.... correct me if im wrong its been along time since stats. it would be closer to 20% if its closer to 98% effective ...but you might want to see if the effective rating isnt closer to like 99.8 in which case would still be pretty consistent...moral of story tho the more attempts the more chances you have.
    No, it's not how many times you have sex. It's 2% every time.

    Think of it as lottery stats.

  7. #16

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    When they say that it has a 98% rate of effectiveness, what they mean is this:

    Over the course of a year, 100 sexually active women are given the pill. In that year, 2 of them will get pregnant.

    I googled "birth control effectiveness" and this was the first web page to come up:

    link removed

    ...which states on the top line "The following table provides estimates of the percent of women likely to become pregnant while using a particular contraceptive method for one year. "

    ...my math is not flawed.

  8. #17
    Platinum Member RayKay's Avatar
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    No, the stats are measured per the pregnancy rate over year, but that does not mean that YOUR rate increases every year.

    Every time you have sex again, your chance is 1-5% (if on pill depending on stats you go by - I always go by the 5% for the pill personally). The next time, it is still 1-5%. It does not increase every year or every time.

    I have the copper IUD, so my risk is 0.08% every time on average, it is not going to be "more" just because I have sex more/longer, I am just exposing myself to the risk of falling in that 0.08% more often.
    Last edited by RayKay; 01-29-2008 at 10:47 PM.

  9. #18
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    No, the stats are measured per the pregnancy rate over year, but that does not mean that YOUR rate increases every year.

    Every time you have sex again, your chance is 1-5% (if on pill depending on stats you go by). The next time, it is still 1-5%. It does not increase every year or every time.
    Yeah that is right. The odds are EVERY time you have sex, not cummulative.

    And the table you quoted said failure rate of 0.1% if used properly. That is even less than I said. Equivalent to 1 chance in every 1000 events.

  10. #19
    Platinum Member Cognitive_Canine's Avatar
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    I think what she is trying to say is.

    That if you are on the pill for 20 years. You'd have a two percent chance everytime you have sex. So, if you have sex 100 times compared to someone who has sex 10 times, you are more likely to become pregnant.

  11. #20
    Platinum Member Cognitive_Canine's Avatar
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    At least, i think that is what they are trying to say...

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