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Inevitable Surprises
by Peter Schwartz
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Paperback: 272 pages
Publisher: Gotham (May 24 2004)
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Read an Excerpt

Chapter 1: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence
In a world of surprises, what can we count on? As I write this, in early 2003, the question has never seemed so relevant. Some have lost their life savings in the economic turmoil of the last few years.

Chapter 1: The Nature of Predetermined Elements
How do I know all this? Because I have one of the most interesting jobs in the world. I lead Global Business Network (GBN), the world's preeminent research and consulting firm focused on scenario planning.

Chapter 1: Denial and Defensiveness
If the future is so predictable, why do so many businesses and organizations have difficulty putting the facts together? One would think that many people would be well practiced by now, for discontinuities have been a regular fact of life.



Book Description

The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening.

Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartz's startling and accurate predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the "inevitable surprises" of tomorrow.

Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in business or the future of our society can afford to miss.

About the Author

Peter SchwartzPeter Schwartz

Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chair of Global Business Network, part of the Monitor Group. He is the author of The Art of the Long View, and coauthor of The Long Boom and When Good Companies Do Bad Things. He has been a leading advisor to governments and major corporations. A highly sought-after speaker for business symposiums, he writes the monthly "Scenario" column for Red Herring magazine.

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